EP. 88 – My Take On The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

[INTRO]

So let's start with how it works. Listen, it doesn't work the same way as Brazil, right?

So in Brazil, you have the democracy, which is a direct democracy in which we vote and we say, listen, we Bolsonaro to win. That's what happened in 2018 - we want Bolsonaro to win - and most of the population voted for the guy. That's the person who wins. It's very simple. Now, in the United States, that's not how it works. In the United States, you have these guys, these people that are called state electors, right. State Electors. These guys, these state electors, they are selected by the political parties and they are selected at the state level, the state level. So it's not in the federal level. It's at the state level. So, for example, the state of Ohio has their state electors. They state of Florida has their state electors.

OK, so each political party mostly usually it's separated between Republicans and Democrats, of course, because it's the the biggest parties, it's kind of the only parties that you would vote for. But there's there's the the other parties as well. But usually those two, they have a number of they have a number of state electors in these states.

So here's what happens. Here's what happens... Today's is the election day. The population is voting, right? So, the normal people. Normal people are voting and they are voting in their states. Right. So let's imagine here, let's say I'm Mike and I'm from Ohio. I am voting for Trump. I want Trump to win. But everyone else in my state, most people in my state want Biden to win. Right. If Biden has more votes than Trump in my state in Ohio, then the Electoral College, that that is the state electors in my state, Ohio, are all going to vote for Biden. So these state electors that are elected in the state level, they have to vote for the person that our the population of the state decided to vote for. That's what the Electoral College is. In essence, that's that the term Electoral College, and that's how it works. So it's not like Brazil where most people vote for a person and that's how the person is elected. It's on the state level. The state the people, the population of the state votes for that guy. And then the state electors, they they vote in a way that is consistent with the results of the popular vote of that state. OK, that's how it works. It's I don't know I don't know how to put it more in more simple terms.

That's that's the simplest. The simplest. The more simple I can go. The most simple I can go.

So that's that's that's just how it is. So in in the forty eight states, in forty eight states of the United States, the electoral votes are on a winner take all basis.

What's that. I mean what does what does that mean. It means that if a state gives the president thirty eight votes, which is the case of Texas. Right. Texas gives the president thirty eight electoral votes. That means that if the population of that state decides that they want Trump or Biden to win, whatever it is, that president is going to get - that... that candidate is going to get thirty eight votes in Texas. How do you win then? How does a president win? The president needs 270 votes, not population votes. It needs 270 electoral votes. Right, the votes from the Electoral College, the electoral votes from the state electors, the candidate needs 270 votes to win, 270 votes to win. If I'm not wrong, we have five hundred and thirty eight total votes. So 538. So you need 270, which is a simple majority. OK, so you need 270 votes to win. Now, this is how it works. So it's different from Brazil. Once you understand this, then you can start understanding how it works because then you're not going to get confused about people saying, oh, but the president didn't win the popular vote.

Listen to the popular vote doesn't matter because that's not how it works. So it's it's like saying in Brazil, you know, when people say, oh, the president didn't win the popular vote, but it won anyways. That's listen, that's not how it flies, man, because that's imagined about think about Brazil. It's the same as we said, listen, the president won the popular vote, but he lost the state votes. It's something that doesn't exist in Brazil. So it's... you can't make that comparison. It doesn't make sense to say, oh, but they lost the popular vote, which is what people used to say in 2016.

Yes. Trump in 2016 lost the popular vote by a big margin. I think four million. Five million, I don't know. However, he won the electoral colleges. He won more states. And that's how the election works. That's how the game plays. That's how the how that's how you play the game. Those are the rules. So if there are rules, you have to follow them and you have to abide by it. It's very simple.

OK, so once you understand how it works, then you are not going to be misled by whoever wants to tell you that the president shouldn't win because he didn't win the popular vote. Most likely Trump's not going to win the popular vote. I don't know. Maybe he will, but I don't think he will.

That's how it works.

So let's talk about it before I tell you about my gas, let's talk about one thing that we say that are the swing states. The swing states are eight states that are, you know, the states that we think that are the states that are going to decide the election. So we look at those states in the United States and we think, OK, these states are probably going to decide the election. They are states that could change. So that means that maybe they were blue in 2016. That means they were Democrats and now they can be Republicans and or states that were Republican. And they can change and swing and become we don't say swing, but they can become Democrats and Democrats that they can change from a red state, blue state. And those are the states. They're probably going to probably going to define the results of the election.

Right.

So if you if you think about if you think about 2016 and in comparison to 2012, Barack Obama in 2016 16, you had six states, six states that that most people were thinking about.

Most people were focusing on and were telling that to the swing states.

Six of those states, they flipped and they flipped to Trump.

That means that those are states that were blue originally in 2012 and they became red in 2016. And that helped give Trump the election in 2016. So you have to understand, what are those swing states? So I'm looking at here online now and here are the swing states that people are thinking more about in this election. We're thinking about Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Iowa. From all these states, we have eight states, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. We have one, two, three, four, five, six, in which Biden has the lead. And look at that. Biden has the lead in in, I would say the most important, except for Ohio. So Ohio, Trump has the lead in Ohio, but Biden has a lead in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin.

OK, if Biden if the if this poll is correct, I'm looking at the national polls, if the polls are correct. And the margin of error is is is, I don't know, two or three, if it's not more than two, if the margin of error is not more than two. Then Biden is going to win, but here's the thing, here's what I believe. I believe the polls are wrong. And when I look at Florida, when I look at Pennsylvania, when I look at Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, I can't tell you precisely where I think Trump is going to win. But what we can do is we can look at the at the map from the elections in 2016. I'm going to Google that right now. I have my computer in front me, and I'm going to look at the map in 2016 and we can see which states Trump won. So when we look let's look at Ohio. So Trump won Ohio in 2016. Listen, he's going to win Ohio again. I don't think he's going to lose Ohio. He's not going to flip, OK? It's not going to flip. Trump won Pennsylvania by a very small margin by one percent. Trump won Pennsylvania by one percent.

He got Pennsylvania, a lot of people are saying he's going to lose Pennsylvania and it's going to flip again to Biden, I don't believe so. You know, the polls telling me I look at the polls and it's telling me that it's going to flip. It's telling me that Pennsylvania is has a five point lead for Biden, which I I don't believe I don't think it's possible. I think that the when I look at the United States election and I look at the feeling that Americans have about Trump, I don't think Trump has lost enthusiasm. I think he may of course, he lose loses a little bit of voters. But I don't think Trump has lost the enthusiasm. I think that people that voted for Trump in 2016 16 are much more likely to vote for Trump again when you compare to people that voted for Dems in 2016. So what I'm saying is people that voted for for Trump in 2016 are probably going to vote for Trump again. And people who voted for Hillary in 2016. I'm not so sure.. I have the data here. It tells me that people are most likely voting for Biden, but I don't believe the data. So when I look at the Guardian here, I'm at the Guardian dot com, and I see that Biden has a lead in six out of the eight swing states, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin. I don't believe that's correct. Let's look at North Carolina.

I believe Trump won North Carolina in 2016. Let's let's find it - where's North Carolina... Yeah, Trump won last night by three points in 2016. Do you really believe that we are going to be able to get a three percent decrease from 2016 or a three percent increase in the Democrats from 2016? I don't believe so. It's very hard, right.

Let's let's just do the math. Let's do the math very, very quickly. Let's see. So Trump got in 2016 two million and 360000 votes in North Carolina. So, 2 million and 360 thousand votes in North Carolina. Let's see how much is three percent of that. So three percent. So zero point zero three times two three hundred sixty, so 2,360,000 votes, it's 70000.

So we need 70,000 people that voted for Trump in 2016 to give up voting for him and then vote for them... to vote for Biden. Listen, I don't think that's possible. I think in fact, I think that Trump is going to have a bigger lead in North Carolina this time, because what I see when we look at the at the rally is when you look at people that are actually going to go into the streets to show their support, we see so many more for Trump. Why don't we see that support for Biden? In my opinion is that that support doesn't really exist. That support isn't really there. The support is just in some places, such as academia, universities, in the media, which is mostly left. And we all know that! There's there's no point to lie. So that's why my guess is that Trump wins, and that Trump wins by a higher margin, not by the popular vote. Again, it doesn't matter the popular vote, but I, I think that Trump wins by a higher margin. So maybe a little bit more than three hundred and six votes, electoral votes. So let me go through the states that Trump got. All right. So let's let's go let's walk through all the states that Trump got. Trump got Montana. I don't think he's going to lose Montana. Trump got North Dakota. He's definitely not going to lose North Dakota. Trump got Idaho. He's not gonna lose Idaho. Trump got Wyoming. He's not gonna lose Wyoming. Trump got South Dakota. He's not going to lose South Dakota. Trump got Nebraska. He's not going to lose Nebraska. I'm looking at those states and it's it's impossible, Trump to lose those states because he had such a big lead.

In those states, he's not going to lose Utah. He's not going to lose Kansas. Arizona. All right, Arizona, that's one of the states that people think he may lose. I still think he's not going to lose Arizona.

He got a far four points lead in Arizona in 2016. Do you really think that four percent of people that voted for him would not vote for him again and would, in an exchange, try to vote for the third party candidate or Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden? I don't think so. New Mexico is obviously going to be blue. Colorado is obviously going to be blue.

We have Oklahoma. Trump's not going to lose Oklahoma. We have Texas. OK, people some people are saying Trump's going to lose Texas. I don't believe so. Trump's going to keep Texas. Right. That's why I think that Trump either is going to win some states. So I can't really tell you maybe Minnesota, um, maybe let's see another one.

Yeah, he's not going to win California. I'm pretty sure he's going to win Florida. He's going to keep Florida because he won - maybe Virginia. I don't know. Maybe not. But, you know, it's hard to tell. Right. That's the thing. It's hard to tell. I don't think Trump's going to lose many electoral votes.

Because I don't think a lot of the votes would flip, right?

And I'm sorry if I'm doing this podcast on the fly, and it's a little confusing to understand what I'm saying here, because I'm doing this on the fly, I haven't written anything down before I I started.

I'm just trying to think with you here. Look at Kentucky, man Kentucky. In 2016, Trump got 62 percent of votes in Kentucky. He's going to lose in Kentucky. No, Indiana, he got 56 percent of votes in Indiana is going to lose. Indiana, no. Ohio, he got 51 percent in Ohio. So Ohio is one in which you look at the the polls now and they're giving Trump a lead. Listen, he's not going to lose Ohio. He's going to keep Ohio. Florida, man, OK? Florida is one in which they give Biden the lead. I don't think he's going to lose Florida, man. I think the people in Florida are more inclined to vote for Trump, even though you have a more you have a larger turnout. You have the ballots that were sent to people to vote when because of covid. I don't I don't think so. I don't think I still think that Trump's going to win. It's hard to tell. It's hard to tell. But I still think Trump's going to win. So that's my guest for tonight. I think that he's going to keep most of the states he flipped the other election. I think he's going to keep Florida and Pennsylvania. Maybe, maybe, maybe he loses Florida. I don't know. I'm thinking about it. Maybe he loses Florida because you have a lot of more people voting this time. So maybe he may lose Florida. I've seen a lot of influencers moving, so maybe he may lose Florida, but I don't think so, man. I think is going to take Florida and I think it's going to keep Pennsylvania and he's going to keep Ohio. And I think it's going to be the end for Biden.

But my point with this podcast was two, actually I had two goals with this broadcast. First, I wanted to give you an idea of how the electoral system works in the United States so that you don't get misled by anyone, that you can understand things by yourself.

And please read more. Go on. Google and Google like Google like how does the Electoral College work? This way you're going to be able to find out how it works, and you're going to be able to read more about it. Because my explanation here was very, very poor. I just wanted to go with it, go through, get through with it that very quickly. And the other thing I want you to look at and search search for the polls and how are things going and inform yourself of all the states that are the swing states. So the swing states that we believe are the states that are going to be the most important for this election of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Iowa, Iowa, Iowa.

I never know how to say this one...

But these are the states that we believe that are going to be the decision makers in the election. And we have Ohio and Iowa for Trump only. And Trump has a very small lead in those. So do I believe those polls? No, I don't believe them. I think they're very poorly done.

And I think Trump's going to win. But I want you to tell me what you think. So go on my Instagram. Tell me, send me a DM, saying: Listen, Mike. I think you're wrong! Listen, Mike, I think you're right. Share this podcast with someone. If you think this person needs to understand a little bit more about how the Electoral College works in the United States so this person can be a little bit better informed next time they talk about the elections. Right. Because my problem is, listen, I don't care if you like Biden or not, if you like Trump or not. I, of course, love Trump. I want him to win. I don't really care which one you like. I don't really care which one you would like to vote for. Or, of course, you're not voting. Then I say so I don't really care which one you would like to win. That's not the point. My point is, are you well educated enough about it to talk about it? Do you know what do you know how many years Biden has been in Senate and in the Congress, in the United States? Do you know, like do you have an idea? Do you want to guess? Forty seven years. Do you know did you know that he was the vice president of the United States for eight years, the Obama period? Do you know the things that he said? Do you know, the things that he did? Do you know anything about his son and his laptop? So we can say the same thing about TRUMP. Do you know what he said? You know, what he did? Do you know the things that he did over over the last four years? Listen, If you don't know the answer to these questions, if you don't know, then you don't know enough to talk about the election. If you only know about Joe Biden because you've heard about it now, you are not well educated enough about this to talk about it. And that's OK. Listen, man, you don't have to talk about everything. You don't have to love everything and talk about everything and have an opinion on everything. And it's my point on the podcast. My point on today's podcast is, listen, make your own opinion, make up your mind, but don't let people hijack your opinion. You are entitled to it, but you have to educate yourself so that you can talk about it. So 99 percent of people are going to talk about this election today. You're going to know everyone in Brazil is going to -- they're going to talk about it. They're going to say who they want to win. And then you can ask them, OK, like, why do you want this guy to win? Do you have -- do you know why? And most people are not going to know why, because they don't learn enough to comment and to give an opinion about something. So what I want you to do after this podcast is over is: make up your mind. Do you want to talk about this? Do you want to know more about the elections? And if so, learn a little bit more. Don't read only one news source. Read more than one. Try to go to the source instead of reading the title and the headline of the newspaper article, try to see and actually watch or read what the person that they are talking about actually said, try to look at what Biden actually did, try to look at what Trump actually did, try to look at the numbers, the statistics, and then you can make up your own mind and don't let anyone go into your head and live there. Your head is your head. So don't let people live there. So my point is: this is this is how it works. That's the Electoral College. And you now know how it works or kinda know, because my -- I'm -- I'm not going to lie, my explanation here was pretty bad, that's one. But that's how it works. I was trying to make it simple, but, you know, I don't know, I couldn't make it more simple. But you can you can Google it and learn a little bit more about it. And the second thing is, I think Trum's gonna win. That's my second point. And my third point is make your own opinion, make up your mind, and don't let anyone make that mind for you.

So don't trust what I'm saying here. Don't believe me. Listen, I think -- that's what you think. I think Trump's going to win. I don't think the states are going to flip in a way that helps Biden enough. Maybe some of these states flip. I don't know. I don't think Florida is gonna flip. I really don't think so. I don't think Texas is going to flip. So it's a major lead for Trump there. And by the way, the polls right now are already telling me that Florida has more Republican registered voters, voters voting for voting for Trump.

That doesn't mean that it's already won because they are only registered Republican. Maybe they are voting for Trump -- for Biden -- his time, but at least that's what's telling us. So those are the three points for today's podcast. One, learn about how it works. I hope you learned a little bit. Maybe you can Google it and learn a little bit more. Second. That's my guess. I think Trump going to win and I think it's going to be a larger win by a larger margin than 2016. That's my guess. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think I'm right. And the last thing is educate yourself, learn about it so that you don't let people make up your mind for you. You can make up your own mind man, you're smart enough. You're intelligent enough. You can do it, right. Don't let people hijack your opinion, and your mind, your thoughts, your beliefs, make up your own beliefs, but make an educated guess. Don't make just a guess. Make an educated guess. And that's that's my thoughts for today, I hope you enjoyed this podcast. I'm getting back to it. I really apologize. The fact that I had I think I stayed two or three months without posting any podcast. So we're back at it. We have more podcasts coming up this week. Thank you so much for listening. And I'll see you in the next one.